Can India pip Sri Lanka on Nett Run Rate? (28 August 1999)

28 August 1999

Can India pip Sri Lanka on Nett Run Rate?

Karthik K Ramamurthy & Sripriya V Narayanasamy

Will Mr. Mathematics play a role again, with calculators being whipped out, and their keys furiously punched to determine the finalists of the Aiwa Cup?

That will certainly be the case if India beat Sri Lanka in the last league game of the Aiwa Cup to be played at Colombo on 29th August, '99.

With Australia having already qualified, their opponents will be decided based on the results of tomorrow's game.

Here are the various scenarios:

1. Sri Lanka beats India: Sri Lanka goes through to the final by virtue of having 4 points versus India's 0.

2. India beats Sri Lanka in a game decided by the Duckworth-Lewis Method. Sri Lanka still goes through to the Finals, as per a recent ruling by the International Cricket Council (ICC). As per the latest ICC ruling, runs scored and conceded in a match where the Duckworth-Lewis Method comes into play, are not considered for calculating Team NRRs. This is why the latest NRR calculations for the Aiwa Cup don't take into account the first 2 matches of the tournament, where the said Method was applied.

While this ruling has helped India by reducing the gap between its original NRR and Sri Lanka's, it will certainly hurt Tendulkar's side if the Duckworth-Lewis method comes into play in tomorrow's match. In such a situation, even if India were to win by a huge margin, Sri Lanka would go through to the final since the performance in tomorrow's match will not be considered while calculating final Nett Run Rates. So, Sanath Jayasuriya's side, by virtue of a better NRR going into the match, will sneak into the finals.

The Indians, therefore, better pray Messrs. Duckworth and Lewis are kept at bay!

3. India beats Sri Lanka by a big margin, and the Duckworth-Lewis Method is not applied. India goes through to the Finals by virtue of a better NRR.

So what exactly is a "Big Margin"? Read on to see the results of a lot of number-crunching!

Possibility 1: India bats first:

Table I presents the minimum margin of victory India has to achieve to pip Sri Lanka on NRR:

India's Score is in the range India's Minimum (in 50 overs) Victory margin

61 to 105 20 106 to 150 21 151 to 195 22 196 to 240 23 241 to 285 24 286 to 330 25 331 to 375 26 376 to 420 27 421 to 465 28

Possibility 1: Sri Lanka bats first

Sri Lanka's Score is in the range India must reach the (in 50 overs) victory target in

50 to 79 44.3 overs 80 to 126 44.4 overs 127 to 183 44.5 overs 184 to 252 45.0 overs 253 to 338 45.1 overs 339 to 449 45.2 overs

Can India, on current form, what appears a difficult task?

Only the morrow will tell!

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