Foreign policy

Australians will know more about their political leaders in the lead-up to the November 24 federal election and by then they will have also learned about the direction favoured by the nation's cricket decision makers. Sixteen days before Australia votes, the starting XI for the first Test of the new era will walk out, revealing the leanings of a selection panel which lost three of its most valued front benchers in January.

The replacements will not only show the policy for the future - expect more conservative thoughts - but will also display rare feelings from a secretive group that relies on discussions behind locked doors, insists on confidential conversations with players, and offers bland public utterances. During the past two years the main problem for Andrew Hilditch, the panel chairman, and his three footmen has been squeezing high-quality squares into triangular holes. This time, as they try to putty the gaps left by Shane Warne, Glenn McGrath and Justin Langer, there is a danger things could fall out of shape.

Like politicians on the hustings, the selectors' approach will be safety first. Loyal subjects will be kept close and those new to the community will have to prove their trustworthiness. It can take years.

Already Brad Hodge has been treated royally in India despite a barren run, Brad Hogg has been told he's in contention to replace Warne, and Mitchell Johnson has gone from possibility to certainty. Phil Jaques, who outperformed Chris Rogers with Australia A in Pakistan and in the opening Pura Cup game, has been used twice before in Tests while Stuart MacGill has long been around - and ruffling - the side's fringes. The five are the men most likely for elevation, leaving Rogers, Cullen Bailey, Dan Cullen and Ben Hilfenhaus needing domestic miracles to rise to Test status next month.

Shaun Tait is another contender for McGrath's place but he has been set back by his slow recovery from elbow surgery, which delayed his start to the domestic season. MacGill is in a similar position after a minor knee operation and the pair's lack of intense action could be a problem heading into the start of a six-Test home summer.

The fast-bowling spot looks the easiest to fill, with Johnson slotting in next to Brett Lee and Stuart Clark following his superb one-day series in India. Tait's stalled return effectively rules out four fast men being unleashed against Sri Lanka at the Gabba, especially if it remains a batting haven after the first day, like it did during Queensland's opening Pura Cup game. A squad place is Tait's best chance with the hope of coming into calculations for the second Test in Hobart and the India series.

A specialist spinner will definitely be required and the obvious choice is MacGill, but the slow-bowling soap opera has become more intriguing with each update. Having recognised the effect his emotive behaviour could have on team-mates, MacGill, 36, went to Pakistan with Australia A as the senior squad member. There he was fined for swearing at an opposition batsman, was less effective than the offspinner Cullen, and was summoned to an appointment with Michael Brown, Cricket Australia's general manager of cricket.

On his return from the tour he had a knee operation that was kept quiet until he was in danger of missing New South Wales' opening first-class fixture, and the game against Queensland on October 26 is his only chance for a convincing audition for the regular spot he's been waiting for since Shane Warne's drug suspension ended. The three first-class matches involving the Australia squad members over the next two weeks will be critical for all who crave the first opportunity to follow greatness.

While MacGill has been out of view, Hogg has been shining. His one-day form has been outstanding since the World Cup, but it is unrealistic to expect him to dress as the No. 1 Test spinner and be in control for up to 30 overs a day instead of ten. His last Test came in 2003 and in 2005-06 he stepped down from first-class duties to encourage Beau Casson's development, returning only when Casson flew to New South Wales. Unless he springs to life against Victoria, Hogg will be jostling with Cullen for the back-up spinning duties if Australia consider a double act or tire of handing chances to MacGill.

In the past two days the opening spot has become more clear thanks to Phil Jaques' collection of 13 and 167 against Western Australia. The sprint to partner Matthew Hayden had become a three-way battle between Jaques, Rogers and Hodge after Shane Watson's umpteenth hamstring strain, although another valid option could have been added if the selectors considered moving Hussey from the middle. Jaques' form almost certainly ends the argument and he is being helped by Hussey's absence with a hamstring problem suffered in South Africa. An injured Hussey may create the only opening for Hodge.

The canvassing and campaigning are reaching a conclusion but it is unlikely to be a time for selection risk-taking. In uncertain times, and with this panel's biggest collective decisions to make, Hilditch and his safe hands will go with what they know.

Possible 1st Test squad 1 Matthew Hayden, 2 Phil Jaques, 3 Ricky Ponting (capt), 4 Michael Hussey, 5 Michael Clarke, 6 Andrew Symonds, 7 Adam Gilchrist (wk), 8 Brett Lee, 9 Stuart Clark, 10 Stuart MacGill, 11 Mitchell Johnson, 12 Shaun Tait.